NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Flare 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2018 Feb 19 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2018


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 669 km/s at 19/0807Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 19/1249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 19/0330Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 13452 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb).


III.  Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Feb 069
Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        19 Feb 072


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  014/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  010/012-008/008-008/008


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/15