NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Flare 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2017 Mar 24 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2017


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Mar, 26 Mar, 27 Mar).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 712 km/s at 23/2120Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 23/2308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
24/0009Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 11529 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Mar), quiet to active
levels on day two (26 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (27 Mar).


III.  Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Mar 072
Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar 072/072/075
90 Day Mean        24 Mar 076


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  009/008-009/012-016/025


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/35
Minor Storm           05/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/30