NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Flare 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2017 Jul 22 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2017


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25 Jul).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 763 km/s at 21/2143Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 22/0813Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 22/0809Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3619 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (24 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (25 Jul).


III.  Event probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jul 070
Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        22 Jul 076


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  010/012-009/008-006/005


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/15/15