NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Flare 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Last 75 Reports Today's Space Weather Space Weather Now

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2017 May 29 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2017


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/2313Z from Region 2659 (N13W70). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (30 May) and expected to
be very low on days two and three (31 May, 01 Jun).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 29/1206Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 29/0908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
29/1241Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 490 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (31 May, 01 Jun).


III.  Event probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 May 076
Predicted   30 May-01 Jun 074/073/072
90 Day Mean        29 May 076


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May  032/049
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  007/008-005/005-005/005


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/05/05