NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Flare 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2018 Jun 18 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2018


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 597 km/s at 18/1425Z. Total IMF
reached 20 nT at 18/0240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 17/2353Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 564 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (20 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (21 Jun).


III.  Event probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jun 074
Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        18 Jun 070


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun  017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  009/010-006/008-006/005


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/20