NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Flare 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2018 Aug 16 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 16/0128Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 16/1007Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
15/2106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 391 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Aug 068
Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        16 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  010/010-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10