NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center
Predicted Geomagnetic Activity Index
Geomagnetic activity can affect communications, navigation systems, satellite health, power grids, and space travel. Kp is one of the most common indices used to indicate the severity of the global magnetic disturbances in near-Earth space.
The Wing Kp Predicted Geomagnetic Activity Index model is now deployed and operational. Costello is now considered non-operational and has been discontinued on 23 Mar 2011. Comments and questions are welcomed at SWPC.CustomerSupport@noaa.gov
The Wing Kp Predicted Geomagnetic Activity Index model is known to perform well for large geomagnetic storms and includes both a 1 hour and a 4 hour advance prediction of activity. Wing Kp 7-day model output is available in ascii data list format at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wingkp/wingkp_list.txt and via Anonymous FTP at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/lists/wingkp
Wing Kp Predicted Activity Index -- The current 1-hour and 4-hour Kp predictions are shown to the right of the white dashed line, which marks the current time. Recent predictions, with the observed Estimated Kp, are to the left of the white line. SWPC receives the latest predicted planetary geomagnetic activity index ( Kp) from the U.S. Air Force Weather Agency Wing Kp model. User Guide
The dashed red line indicates the lowest alert level, G1 (minor), on the NOAA Space Weather Scale.
The bottom Lead Time panel shows an estimate of the actual lead time which depends on solar wind speed.
The lead time is the time for the solar wind to propagate from the ACE satellite, at L1, to the Earth.
Missing Kp values, Lead Time values, or model output indicates the data is not available at SWPC.
The ASCII list is a tabulated listing of model output that includes the model run time, valid time of the prediction, magnitude of the prediction in Kp units, the prediction lead time, and the Estimated Kp index. Via Anonymous FTP ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/lists/wingkp/
For further information see Kp Forecast Models, Wing, Simon (2005) et al, /J. Geophy. Res/, Vol 110, A04203, doi:10.1029/2004JA010500.
October 20, 2010 -- Questions and Comments: SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
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